Denver County, CO climate risk

Denver County in the state and national rankings

For Denver County, FEMA’s modeled annual loss totals about $222.0 million; its US rank is #114 of 3,232. A #2 of 64 state ranking accompanies its 10.7% share of the Colorado loss total. About $222.0 million is the modeled yearly average over the long run, rather than a one-year prediction. Jefferson County, CO ranks immediately above it, with about $231.4 million in modeled annual loss. Montgomery County, TX ranks immediately below it, with about $221.9 million in modeled annual loss. The nearest higher state total is about $231.4 million, recorded for Jefferson County, CO. That puts the estimates about $9.4 million apart, with 11.1% of state loss in the comparison county. The nearest lower state total is about $212.6 million, recorded for El Paso County, CO. That puts the estimates about $9.4 million apart, with 10.2% of state loss in the comparison county.

Colorado county comparisons

Denver County hazard estimates

Riverine Flood

FEMA models about $93.6 million in expected annual loss from riverine flooding, placing the county #130 of 3,232 nationally. At 42.2% of the county’s modeled loss, the hazard places #2 of 64 statewide; FEMA assigns a Relatively High rating; for riverine flooding, 3 state counties and 186 US counties share that label.

Hail

The national loss rank for hail is #4 of 3,225, based on about $72.4 million in modeled expected annual loss. This hazard makes up 32.6% of the total; FEMA assigns a Very High rating, and its loss ranks #1 of 64 in Colorado; for hail, 4 state counties and 25 US counties share that label.

Tornado

With about $28.0 million in modeled expected annual loss from tornadoes, the county ranks #56 of 3,225 in the national comparison. This hazard makes up 12.6% of the total; FEMA assigns a Relatively High rating, and its loss ranks #1 of 64 in Colorado, matching 272 US counties, including 9 in Colorado, for this hazard.

Cold Wave

For cold waves, about $10.1 million in expected annual loss puts the county #189 of 3,232 across the US. This hazard makes up 4.5% of the total; FEMA assigns a Relatively High rating, and its loss ranks #4 of 64 in Colorado; the Relatively High label covers 6 state counties and 302 nationally for cold waves.

Earthquake

For earthquakes, about $7.4 million in expected annual loss puts the county #271 of 3,232 across the US. In Colorado, this estimate ranks #1 of 64 and represents 3.3% of the county’s modeled loss; FEMA assigns a Relatively Moderate rating; for earthquakes, 1 state county and 250 US counties share that label.

Lightning

For lightning, about $4.4 million in expected annual loss puts the county #31 of 3,222 across the US. This hazard makes up 2.0% of the total; FEMA assigns a Very High rating, and its loss ranks #6 of 64 in Colorado, matching 109 US counties, including 10 in Colorado, for this hazard.

About $21.2 million separates riverine flooding from hail in the local estimates, equivalent to 9.5 percentage points of county loss. About $44.4 million separates hail from tornadoes in the local estimates, equivalent to 20.0 percentage points of county loss. For tornadoes, modeled loss is about $18.0 million above cold waves, leaving 8.1 percentage points between their county shares. About $2.7 million separates cold waves from earthquakes in the local estimates, equivalent to 1.2 percentage points of county loss. For earthquakes, modeled loss is about $2.9 million above lightning, leaving 1.3 percentage points between their county shares.

Population and recorded values

FEMA counts 715,210 residents in Denver County, across about 156 square miles. For building value, the source records about $135.93 billion. FEMA lists about $2.0 million in agricultural value. Per resident, the modeled annual amount is about $310; the Colorado average is about $361. Its 12.4% share of state residents sits alongside 10.7% of of annual loss. The county contains 11.7% of the building value recorded across Colorado. Its population density ranks 1 within 64 Colorado counties that have both area and population estimates. The population-to-area ratio is about 4,576 residents per square mile; statewide it is about 55. The median county population in Colorado is about 15,093, compared with 715,210 locally. The county’s national shares are 0.2% for population and 0.1% for modeled loss. For comparison, the US modeled loss average is about $459 per resident; the county figure is about $310. The six hazards described above together make up 97.3% of modeled loss, about $216.0 million annually. Other hazards account for the remaining 2.7% of modeled loss, about $6.0 million. The county’s number 7 hazard by dollar loss is strong wind: about $4.1 million, with a state rank of #2 of 64. Its national loss rank is #100 of 3,225, and it represents 1.8% of the county’s modeled loss. The county’s number 8 hazard by dollar loss is heat waves: about $1.2 million, with a state rank of #4 of 64. Nationally, this estimate places #706 of 3,202; its share of the county’s modeled loss is 0.5%.

FEMA labels and risk score

Denver County has a FEMA risk index score of about 95.2, ranking #151 of 3,144 nationally. For risk index, FEMA assigns Relatively High; 2 counties in Colorado have that label. The expected annual loss rating is Relatively High, a label shared by 3 of 64 Colorado counties. FEMA labels social vulnerability as Very Low, matching 38 county records across Colorado. FEMA labels community resilience as Relatively High, matching 11 county records across Colorado. Within Colorado, the risk score places #1 of 64 and the dollar loss places #2 of 64. Both ratings match in 10 counties statewide: vulnerability is Very Low, and resilience is Relatively High. This county accounts for 28.4% of that group’s annual loss, while the group accounts for 37.6% across Colorado. With a score of about 94.9, Jefferson County, CO ranks #2 of 64 statewide, immediately below this county. FEMA gives that county a Relatively High risk index label, alongside 11.1% of the state loss total. Nationally, 625 counties carry the same Very Low social vulnerability label, covering 23.7% of FEMA’s recorded population. Nationally, 629 counties carry the same Relatively High community resilience label, covering 24.5% of FEMA’s recorded population. The county’s Very High group contains 2 hazards: hail, lightning. FEMA assigns Relatively High to 5 hazards here, covering cold waves, riverine flooding, strong wind, tornadoes, winter weather. The local Relatively Moderate hazard group contains 2 entries: earthquakes, landslides. Across the county’s hazard ratings, 1 carry Relatively Low: heat waves. Across the county’s hazard ratings, 4 carry Very Low: drought, ice storms, volcanic activity, wildfires.