Miami-Dade County, FL climate risk

Miami-Dade County in the state and national rankings

Miami-Dade County has about $824.7 million in modeled expected annual loss, ranking #15 of 3,232 nationally. Its share of Florida modeled loss is 9.4%, with a state rank of #1 of 67. FEMA’s about $824.7 million figure describes a long-run average; actual annual loss can differ. The next higher national total is about $853.4 million, in San Francisco County, CA. Clark County, NV ranks immediately below it, with about $812.6 million in modeled annual loss. Within the state list, Broward County, FL has the next lower estimate: about $648.0 million. That puts the estimates about $176.7 million apart, with 7.4% of state loss in the comparison county.

Florida county comparisons

Miami-Dade County hazard estimates

Riverine Flood

For riverine flooding, about $355.8 million in expected annual loss puts the county #15 of 3,232 across the US. In Florida, this estimate ranks #1 of 67 and represents 43.1% of the county’s modeled loss; FEMA assigns a Very High rating; the Very High label covers 2 state counties and 26 nationally for riverine flooding.

Hurricane

FEMA models about $330.6 million in expected annual loss from hurricanes, placing the county #2 of 2,485 nationally. At 40.1% of the county’s modeled loss, the hazard places #1 of 67 statewide; FEMA assigns a Very High rating; the Very High label covers 21 state counties and 47 nationally for hurricanes.

Cold Wave

FEMA models about $41.0 million in expected annual loss from cold waves, placing the county #27 of 3,232 nationally. In Florida, this estimate ranks #3 of 67 and represents 5.0% of the county’s modeled loss; FEMA assigns a Very High rating; the same rating for cold waves covers 5 Florida counties and 39 across the US.

Heat Wave

The national loss rank for heat waves is #28 of 3,202, based on about $31.1 million in modeled expected annual loss. Its 3.8% share of total loss comes with a state loss rank of #1 of 67; FEMA assigns a Relatively High rating; for heat waves, 5 state counties and 98 US counties share that label.

Tornado

For tornadoes, about $24.8 million in expected annual loss puts the county #66 of 3,225 across the US. At 3.0% of the county’s modeled loss, the hazard places #6 of 67 statewide; FEMA assigns a Relatively High rating, matching 272 US counties, including 20 in Florida, for this hazard.

Coastal Flood

The national loss rank for coastal flooding is #8 of 588, based on about $22.8 million in modeled expected annual loss. At 2.8% of the county’s modeled loss, the hazard places #2 of 59 statewide; FEMA assigns a Very High rating; the Very High label covers 7 state counties and 29 nationally for coastal flooding.

For riverine flooding, modeled loss is about $25.2 million above hurricanes, leaving 3.1 percentage points between their county shares. About $289.6 million separates hurricanes from cold waves in the local estimates, equivalent to 35.1 percentage points of county loss. For cold waves, modeled loss is about $9.9 million above heat waves, leaving 1.2 percentage points between their county shares. Between heat waves and tornadoes, the modeled dollar gap is about $6.3 million; their shares differ by 0.8 percentage points. About $2.0 million separates tornadoes from coastal flooding in the local estimates, equivalent to 0.2 percentage points of county loss.

Population and recorded values

FEMA counts 2,698,679 residents in Miami-Dade County, across about 2,413 square miles. About $358.74 billion is the building value amount in FEMA’s record. The recorded agricultural value is about $1.08 billion. Per resident, the modeled annual amount is about $306; the Florida average is about $409. Its 12.5% share of state residents sits alongside 9.4% of of annual loss. Buildings account for 9.8% of recorded Florida building value. The county holds density position 4 of 67 in Florida, using FEMA’s recorded population and area. The population-to-area ratio is about 1,118 residents per square mile; statewide it is about 298. At 2,698,679 residents, the county compares with the Florida county median of about 129,698. The county’s national shares are 0.8% for population and 0.5% for modeled loss. Using the national population gives about $459 in modeled annual loss per person, versus about $306 here. About $806.2 million of annual loss falls within the six leading hazards, accounting for 97.8% of the total. Other hazards account for the remaining 2.2% of modeled loss, about $18.5 million. The county’s number 7 hazard by dollar loss is lightning: about $8.3 million, with a state rank of #4 of 67. This 1.0% slice of county loss ranks #8 of 3,222 across US counties. In position 8 locally, wildfires has about $5.2 million in modeled annual loss, ranking #5 of 67 statewide. Nationally, this estimate places #110 of 3,144; its share of the county’s modeled loss is 0.6%.

FEMA labels and risk score

Miami-Dade County has a FEMA risk index score of about 99.6, ranking #13 of 3,144 nationally. For risk index, FEMA assigns Very High; 1 county in Florida has that label. Among 67 Florida counties, 16 receive the same Relatively High label for expected annual loss. FEMA labels social vulnerability as Relatively High, matching 18 county records across Florida. For community resilience, FEMA assigns Relatively Moderate; 17 counties in Florida have that label. Within Florida, the risk score places #1 of 67 and the dollar loss places #1 of 67. Within Florida, 6 counties share both labels: Relatively High vulnerability and Relatively Moderate resilience. Those counties together hold 16.1% of Florida modeled loss, including this county’s 58.4% share of their total. With a score of about 99.5, Broward County, FL ranks #2 of 67 statewide, immediately below this county. FEMA gives that county a Relatively High risk index label, alongside 7.4% of the state loss total. Across the US, this social vulnerability category, Relatively High, covers 15.4% of residents in 630 counties. Across the US, this community resilience category, Relatively Moderate, covers 17.0% of residents in 629 counties. The local Very High hazard group contains 5 entries: coastal flooding, cold waves, hurricanes, lightning, riverine flooding. Across the county’s hazard ratings, 3 carry Relatively High: hail, heat waves, tornadoes. The local Relatively Moderate hazard group contains 3 entries: drought, strong wind, wildfires. FEMA assigns Relatively Low to 1 hazard here, covering earthquakes. The county’s Very Low group contains 1 hazard: landslides.